Market context
Bitcoin traded at $77,574 on Friday, up roughly 15% in April and on pace for what CryptoBriefing called the strongest month in a year. The headline number masks the structural shift underneath. Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Federal Reserve has unsettled rate-path expectations, and US-Iran tensions have kept a haven bid under the asset while risk parity wobbles elsewhere. Mike Novogratz captured the mood on Thursday, telling clients via U.Today that overall market momentum feels significantly stronger than a month ago.
Liquidity has helped. Tether's roughly $5 billion in fresh USDT issuance during the month gave the buy side ammunition exactly when ETF demand returned, per CryptoBriefing. Core Scientific's pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI data center infrastructure also reshaped the supply picture by retiring miner-driven sell pressure that has weighed on prior rallies. BlackRock and Strategy continue trading turns on the institutional adoption narrative, with IBIT alone responsible for roughly $3 billion of the recent flow surge and ranking in the top 1% of all ETFs by flow over the period.
Technical setup
Price keeps testing one specific line. The 21-week exponential moving average sits near $78,000 and has acted as weekly resistance through the entire April rally. Rekt Capital pinned the importance plainly: a weekly close above the 21-week EMA flips it from resistance to potential support. A rejection sends Bitcoin back into a post-breakout retest of the Double Bottom that broke out the prior week, with a measured move targeting the $81,000 to $82,500 area.