Market context
Bitcoin entered May trading above $78,000 after April delivered its strongest monthly performance in 12 months, per CoinGlass data cited by Cointelegraph. The gain still came in below the historical April average, which is the part of the print the bulls don't want to talk about. Sentiment hasn't caught up to the price action either. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index printed 39 on Friday, firmly in Fear territory, even after the monthly close.
The macro backdrop is doing the bulls no favors. Warren Buffett took another swing at crypto speculation, Federal Reserve leadership is in transition with Jerome Powell stepping down, and policy uncertainty has US spot demand sitting on its hands. White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt told the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas that a "big announcement" tied to President Trump's Bitcoin reserve is coming within weeks, but markets aren't trading that yet. The CLARITY Act inched closer to law after a stablecoin yield update, with Coinbase chief legal officer Faryar Shirzad pushing publicly for it to be wrapped up. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has already warned the bill is "needed for sure, but not something that should redefine value," so don't expect a regulatory print to do the heavy lifting here.
Technical setup
The chart is a tug of war between two specific levels. Rekt Capital posted that Bitcoin secured a marginal weekly close above the 21-week EMA, with the initial breakout immediately retested by a violent downside wick that printed near $73,000, the top of the prior Double Bottom formation. He framed the next weekly close as the mid-term tell. A close above the EMA confirms the retest. A close below puts BTC back into the low $70,000s.