Market context
Ether came into October with momentum. The token pushed through $2,500 last week and reclaimed more than 11% of total crypto market capitalization, a share it last held before summer's drawdown. U.Today framed the setup as a strong Q3 handoff tied to ETF flows and the upcoming Glamsterdam testnet, with October historically a seasonal win for majors.
The tape tells a tighter story. ETH is pinned to its seven-day moving average around $2,680, with Blockchain.News flagging a dead zone where momentum indicators are running on fumes. Bulls want $2,754 to confirm continuation toward $2,830. Bears want $2,680 to fail and open $2,575 as a stop-hunt magnet. That's a sub-6% range deciding the next leg, and traders are watching the daily close rather than intraday wicks.
Technical setup
The chart is a coiled spring. Price has compressed into the seven-day moving average after a vertical move off the $2,400 base, and the MACD on the daily is flattening - the same signature that preceded August's distribution top. A clean break above $2,754 on volume reopens $2,830, which caps the measured move from the September range. Reject there and the structure invites a mean-revert to $2,575, where the 30-day sits.
For a thesis trade, the line in the sand is $2,500. A daily close below that level invalidates the reclaim and puts the $2,340 pivot back in play. Everything above $2,500 is still constructive. Everything below is a different market.
