Market context
ETH has done the heavy lifting the bulls asked for. A 30% run in seven sessions closed the gap on Bitcoin's leadership and put spot back in front of the $2,500 shelf that capped every attempt in early August. The problem is where the buying came from.
Retail positioning is 70% long into the resistance, per Blockchain. News's intraday desk read, and the daily RSI is stretched above 75 for a fourth straight session. That is a setup that resolves one of two ways: a squeeze through $2,550 into thin liquidity toward $2,700, or a wick that flushes late longs back to the $2,365 pivot before the next attempt.
Grayscale and BlackRock spot ETH ETF flows have been net positive since Aug. 18, but the daily prints are shrinking. Momentum is intact.
Fuel is not.
Technical setup
The chart is textbook late-stage. Price is pressed against $2,500-$2,550, a band that has rejected ETH four times year-to-date and sits directly under the June swing high at $2,632. Volume on the last two green candles came in below the seven-day average, a divergence that usually precedes a wick.
Below spot, the first real bid pocket sits at $2,365, the 21-day exponential moving average and the breakout retest zone from Aug. 21. Lose $2,365 on a daily close and the structure opens toward $2,240, where the 50-day average and prior consolidation top converge.