Market context
Ripple spent the back half of June trying to refocus the narrative. The company highlighted what it called more than $70 million in donations to blockchain adoption efforts since the start of 2025, per a CryptoPotato writeup published Friday. Brad Garlinghouse went on the offensive against Michael Saylor's preferred-stock funding model, calling Strategy's STRC vehicle 'financial engineering' that distracted from real adoption, in remarks reported by CoinDesk. The pitch on Ripple Treasury is bigger still: 13,000 bank connections and visibility into roughly $12.5 trillion in payments. None of it has moved the chart.
XRP traded near $1.06 on Friday, a 20-month low and roughly 70% off the 2025 peak, according to a Crypto.News breakdown. The token shed 22% in June alone, per U.Today. Standard Chartered still carries an $8 price target into 2026, a call that now requires an eight-bagger from current levels. The gap between sell-side optimism and spot weakness is the story of XRP this quarter.
Technical setup
The technical picture is one-sided. Every major moving average sits overhead. Funding rates on perpetual futures have flipped to paying shorts, a configuration that historically precedes either a relief bounce or a final liquidation, per a Blockchain.News analysis published Friday morning. The $1.06 floor is the level of record. A clean break opens $0.99 first, then the $0.85 and $0.70 zones Crypto.News flagged as 2023-era former resistance that now sits as long-term support.
The bullish read hangs on a single mechanical setup. CryptoPotato cited analysts looking at the sub-$1.00 zone as a 'risk-reward' entry, with prior resistance from 2023 and 2024 acting as deep support. U.Today flagged a historical Q3 pattern where July has often delivered a recovery, with a target zone near $1.40. That level aligns almost exactly with the $1.41 resistance wall that has capped every bounce attempt since the spring breakdown. Reclaim $1.41 on a closing basis and the squeeze trade opens up. Lose $1.00 and the bid evaporates.
