BTC and ETH
Bitcoin traded around $77,200 into Friday's settlement on Deribit, where roughly 23,000 contracts worth $1. 74 billion expired at 08:00 UTC. The put/call ratio was 1.
10, the max pain price $76,000, and Deribit data showed a 95% probability of expiry above that strike. Heaviest open interest stacked at $75,500 and $77,000. The technical context is less comfortable than the sentiment read suggests.
Glassnode data, cited by NewsBTC, places BTC below the short-term holder cost basis of $78,900 and below the True Market Mean of $78,000. The next defended zone sits between $65,000 and $70,000. Analysts watching Binance spot orderbooks, per Bitcoinist, describe a market where the ascending pattern from March lows looks constructive but where buyer aggression has thinned visibly above $75,000.
CryptoQuant's read is sharper. The recovery off the April capitulation lows has been driven by derivatives demand, not spot. Total Bitcoin demand has risen, but the spot component has contracted.
The same structural fingerprint preceded the January 2026 relief rally that fizzled, and the firm noted the same setup appeared in 2022 before the next leg lower. "It doesn't guarantee the same outcome, but structurally, this is a bearish demand signal," CryptoQuant wrote. Ethereum is the more contested name.
ETH traded at $2,280 into the same session, with $394 million of options expiring at a 0. 95 put/call ratio and a $2,325 max-pain price, which sits above spot. Analyst Darkfost flagged that funding on Binance has averaged -0.
0018 over the past month, the longest sustained negative print since the FTX collapse in November 2022. ETH has rallied roughly 30% off the February 6 low and shorts have not capitulated. Each forced liquidation removes a short and adds buying pressure.
CryptoQuant's separate Exchange Supply Ratio read is more cautious: the supply contraction that historically marks bottoms has happened, but the price decline that usually accompanies it has not. The firm reads that gap as a delayed, not cancelled, drawdown.
