Market overview
The pulse reads extreme greed at 94 on the Cryptomat sentiment index, down one point on the day, but the price tape doesn't agree. Bitcoin is changing hands near $80,400 after a third rejection at the $82,100 200-day simple moving average, the same ceiling that capped recoveries through April and into mid-May. The corridor is tight. Below sits the short-term holder realized price for the one-week to one-month cohort at roughly $77,900, the level where recent buyers go flat. Above sits the moving average that has now turned away three separate attempts.
The macro reading didn't help. CPI for April came in at 3.8% year over year, per data released May 12 and dissected by Alex Carchidi of The Motley Fool. Core ticked to 2.8%, a touch above consensus. Energy was the heavy hand, up 17.9% as the Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed crude through $120 a barrel during the US-Iran escalation. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark at 3.5% to 3.75% for three meetings running. Futures markets are now pricing about a 30% probability of a hike by December, a setup that argues against the cheap-capital story altcoin bulls have been telling all spring.
Breadth still leans bullish at the sentiment layer. Of 148 classified articles in the last 24 hours, 94.6% scored bullish and 5.4% bearish, with zero neutral, an unusually one-sided distribution that the price action is refusing to confirm. The CryptoBeast composite tells the same split-screen story: SOL,