Market overview
The tape opens the week on a knife edge. Bitcoin trades at $62,746 after a 2.5% bounce off Friday's $59,000 wick, per NewsBTC's chart desk, while Ethereum has clawed back above $1,620 from an intraday low of $1,536. Cryptomat's market pulse score reads 97 (extreme greed), but that score is lagging the price action. It's measuring what classified news flow says about the next leg, not the bruising drawdown that produced these levels.
Geopolitics dominates the catalyst stack. The US Treasury sanctioned Nobitex on Sunday, Iran's largest crypto exchange, as part of what officials are calling the 'Economic Fury' campaign, according to Crypto Briefing. Hours earlier, US forces intercepted Iranian missiles and drones near the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil flows. Tehran is now demanding $24 billion in frozen assets back, raising the temperature on what was already a tense Sunday session.
The Cryptomat take: the macro tape is bullish for hard assets and bearish for everything that depends on stable funding. Bitcoin can absorb both. Long-duration alt L1s probably cannot.
See the BTC/USD daily chart at time of writing.
BTC & ETH
Bitcoin's structural picture is doing something it hasn't done since 2022. Glassnode data flagged by analyst Ali Martinez shows 10.46 million BTC, more than half the circulating supply, sit at an unrealized loss. Past breaches of the 10-million threshold (late 2018, mid-2022) preceded cycle lows. The caveat: circulating supply was 17.4 million in 2018 and 19.2 million in 2022, so the same nominal count is a smaller proportion of float today. That argues for slightly more downside elasticity before the metric actually marks a bottom.