Market overview
The tape is ugly. The plumbing is not. That contradiction is the whole brief.
Bitcoin printed a session low of $60,746 and was trading at $61,828 at time of writing, per data cited by NewsBTC. Ethereum sits near $1,620 after losing the $1,800-$1,900 shelf that had anchored multiple recoveries earlier in the year. XRP slipped under $1.15. Realized Cap, the on-chain measure of aggregate cost basis, has fallen from roughly $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion in three weeks, a $12 billion contraction that Axel Adler Jr. flagged as the first sub-zero 30-day reading since mid-March.
Adjusted SOPR, which tracks whether moved coins are realizing gains or losses, has been below 1.0 for 13 consecutive sessions and now reads 0.987. Translation: the average coin changing hands on-chain is being sold at a 1.3% loss. That is a capitulation regime, not a healthy correction.
And yet the Cryptomat Market Pulse score holds at 90, deep in extreme greed territory, with 92% of the 150 articles classified over the past 24 hours reading bullish in tone. Trend is stable, change24h -1. The sentiment desk and the on-chain desk are not telling the same story this morning. The on-chain desk is the one with the receipts.
BTC and ETH
Bitcoin's structural break is real. BTC is now trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, with all three sloping down. The $64,000-$66,000 zone that capped the February-March range has flipped to resistance. The $60,000-$62,000 band, which produced the February low, is now the last technical floor before the door opens to a wider air pocket. A bearish trend line on the hourly chart caps moves near $62,400, with the 23.6% Fib retracement of the $64,613-to-$60,746 leg sitting just above as the first resistance to clear.