What happened
Aralez, a crypto market analyst posting on X, published a month-by-month Bitcoin forecast on June 3 that walks the price from current levels back to $100,000 by year-end. NewsBTC carried the breakdown on Friday. The thesis is built around one core claim: Bitcoin is still inside a strong bear market and has not yet printed a final low.
Under that frame, Aralez expects Q2 and Q3 to stay bearish, with a capitulation event arriving in October before a fourth-quarter recovery does the heavy lifting. Spot was near $60,000 when the call was published, down more than 17% on the week amid US-Iran headlines and weaker risk sentiment broadly.
Why it matters
Six-figure Bitcoin calls are not rare. Six-figure calls that route through a $46,000 print first are. Aralez's roadmap is one of the few public forecasts pairing a Q4 2026 $100,000 target with a 23% drawdown from current levels as the precondition.
That sequencing matters. It tells longs the path higher is not a smooth grind from $60,000 and it tells shorts not to chase the August bounce. The August relief move to $65,000-$68,000 gets explicitly tagged as a bull trap, which is the kind of call that ages either very well or very badly inside eight weeks.
Market impact
Bitcoin is already pricing in stress. The 17% weekly drop has dragged funding flat on major perp venues and reset open interest. Aralez's June target of a sweep to $60,000 is effectively where price already sits, so the next testable leg of the call is July at $53,000.