What level does Bitcoin need to hold to avoid a deeper drop?

$71,300 on a daily closing basis. That's where the ascending channel floor, the 100-day SMA, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement converge. A close below opens a 15% downside window toward the February base at $60,000.

What would invalidate the bearish thesis?

A reclaim of $75,733 on a daily close would invalidate Martinez's channel-break thesis. To kill the Head and Shoulders setup, Bitcoin needs to push back above $78,258 and force shorts to cover.

Is this drop different from previous Bitcoin selloffs in 2026?

This is the first test of the lower channel boundary on a confirmed exogenous catalyst since the February crash. Previous pullbacks were rotational. Daan Crypto Trades compares the current setup to January's rejection at the 200-day EMA, which preceded a leg lower.

Bitcoin Drops 5% to $72,589 as US-Iran Strikes Trigger Channel Support Test

Bitcoin fell roughly 5% to a one-month low of $72,589 on Thursday after news broke of renewed US strikes against Iranian targets, breaching the $75,000-$76,000 support zone that had held for most of the week. The drop pulled the largest cryptocurrency to the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has framed price action since February, per analysis shared by Ali Martinez. Traders are now watching a $73,000-$71,300 cluster that aligns with the 100-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

By Elena Stojanović· AI-assisted· Regulation correspondent

What happened

Bitcoin lost the $75,000-$76,000 support band early Thursday and traded as low as $72,589, a one-month low, after wire reports flagged renewed US strikes on Iranian targets. The decline wiped out a week of recovery: Bitcoin had been changing hands between $77,000 and $78,000 going into Wednesday before the geopolitical shock hit risk assets. The move took BTC to the lower edge of an ascending channel that analyst Ali Martinez has been tracking since the early February crash.

Per Martinez, the channel's floor sits at the intersection of the 100-day Simple Moving Average and the 23. 6% Fibonacci retracement, making the current zone a structural test rather than a routine pullback. Volume on the breakdown was concentrated in the European morning session, with the sharpest leg coming as the strike headlines crossed.

Why it matters

This is the first time since the February low that Bitcoin has tested the lower channel boundary on a confirmed risk-off catalyst rather than rotational chop. The $75,733 level Martinez previously flagged as the bull-case invalidation is now broken on a closing basis, which mechanically shifts the burden of proof onto buyers. There's also a second pattern stacking on top of the channel break.

Trader Mister Crypto noted Bitcoin has been carving out a Head and Shoulders since mid-April, with the left shoulder formed during the late-April pullback, the head built during this month's rally to $82,500, and the right shoulder developing after that rejection. The neckline sits at $75,000. "Now that we have broken back into the range after losing $75,000, the probability of a move toward the range lows around $63,000 is increasing," he wrote.

Bitcoin Drops 5% to $72,589 as US-Iran Strikes Trigger Channel Support Test

What happened

Why it matters

Market impact

What to watch

Disclaimer

Key takeaways

Frequently asked

Sources