What happened
CryptoQuant data flagged by on-chain analyst Darkfost on Sunday shows Bitcoin's long-term holder cohort back at 15. 26 million BTC, the highest reading since August 2025. The 30-day change metric, plotted as green bars in the CryptoQuant chart Darkfost shared, swung firmly into positive territory after months in the red.
LTH wallets, defined as addresses that have held coins for at least roughly six months, took in about 316,000 BTC over the trailing 30 days. That figure stands out against the late-November reading, when the same metric printed a negative 650,000 BTC as holders distributed into Bitcoin's slide from its October 2025 all-time high. The reclassification math also has a date attached.
Darkfost noted that the 800,000 BTC pulled off Coinbase in late November will officially cross the six-month threshold on May 23, mechanically pushing more supply into the LTH bucket if those coins stay parked.
Why it matters
Long-term holder supply is the cleanest on-chain proxy for conviction. When the cohort grows, fewer coins are available to hit bids on the next leg lower. The current 30-day delta is a full reversal of the late-2025 distribution phase, and it's happening while spot trades near $80,000 rather than at a panic low.
The May 23 reclassification of the 800,000 BTC Coinbase outflow matters because it converts a one-off custody event into a structural supply signal. Once those coins age in, the float available to short-term traders shrinks further, and analysts get a cleaner read on whether the cohort that pulled coins off the exchange in November intends to sit on them through any retest of lower support.