What happened
CryptoQuant data flagged Bitcoin's Puell Multiple crossing back above 1. 00 on Sunday, ending a run of roughly 11 months spent below the line. The ratio measures the dollar value of daily BTC issued to miners against its trailing 365-day average.
A reading above 1 means miners are, on aggregate, earning more per day than the yearly mean. Below 1, they're earning less. The metric was first popularized by analyst David Puell and is one of the handful of on-chain gauges that treats miner revenue as a leading indicator of market phase, per CryptoBriefing's writeup citing CryptoQuant's dashboard.
The cross happened without a single catalyst behind it. BTC spent the week grinding higher into the weekend, and the 365-day denominator rolled off weaker 2025 prints, mechanically lifting the ratio even before Sunday's spot action.
Why it matters
The Puell Multiple is not a price signal. It's a revenue signal, and that's precisely why traders watch it. Since the April 2024 halving dropped the block reward to 3.
125 BTC, miner economics have been the quiet overhang on spot. Public miners sold into strength through much of the past year to fund operations and ASIC fleet upgrades. A sustained reading above 1.
00 is the first clean sign that pressure is easing. The second reason: historically, the first durable cross above 1. 00 after a long sub-1 stretch has tended to mark mid-cycle, not top-of-cycle, behavior.
The 2019 and 2020 analogs both saw the metric print above 1 for months before any blow-off. That's not a forecast. It's a reference frame.