What happened
Ethereum's monthly RSI printed near 40 on Saturday, an all-time low for the indicator on ETH/USD since the asset began trading in 2015, NewsBTC reported, citing chart work from analyst CryptoPatel on X. The reading came as ETH broke below the $1,800 monthly support that had held through most of the spring and traded as low as $1,536 in the past 24 hours, its weakest print of 2026.
At the time of writing, ETH was near $1,612, down from an August 2025 all-time high of $4,946. That's a drawdown of roughly 67% over nine months, deeper than the 2022 bear leg that bottomed around $880. The RSI on the monthly timeframe is a slow-moving indicator.
It does not reset to these levels often. The two prior instances both came inside two months of generational lows: the March 2020 COVID flush at roughly $88, and the June 2022 post-Luna capitulation near $880. This reading is lower than either.
Why it matters
The monthly RSI is one of the few indicators that has not given a false signal at ETH cycle lows since the chain went live. Both prior deep resets preceded rallies of multiples: roughly 55x from the 2020 low to the 2021 top above $4,800, and roughly 5. 5x from the 2022 low to the August 2025 peak.
The current print is more extreme than either, which is the part the bulls are leaning on. The bears' counter is structural. The 2020 and 2022 setups arrived against backdrops that included emergency Fed liquidity and a post-Merge supply narrative, respectively.