What happened
Thorn, who runs research at Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital, published the updated probability in a Tuesday client note flagged by Crypto. News. The 75% figure is a step up from the more cautious framing institutional desks have used through the spring, when CLARITY was stuck in committee shuffle and the August recess looked like a hard wall.
Thorn's call now bakes in the recess. He's saying the bill clears both chambers in time for a presidential signing the week of Aug. 3, a window that would put crypto's defining piece of US legislation on the books before Labor Day.
The Crypto. News report did not include the full client note, and Galaxy has not published the underlying vote-count work publicly. Thorn's track record on Washington calls is the relevant context here.
He flagged the spot Bitcoin ETF approval timeline ahead of the January 2024 sign-off and has been one of the more conservative voices on regulatory probability among bulge-bracket crypto research.
Why it matters
CLARITY answers the question crypto has been arguing about since 2018: who regulates what. The bill carves digital assets into two buckets, with the CFTC taking spot commodities and the SEC keeping anything that walks like a security. That structural handoff is the single biggest overhang on US token issuance, exchange listings, and the legal status of decades-old projects that have lived in enforcement limbo.
A signed law in early August would land before the next FOMC meeting and before Q3 earnings season. It would also pull forward the timeline for altcoin ETF filings that have been waiting on regulatory cover. Issuers including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise have all filed for products on tokens whose SEC status is contested.