What happened
Goldman Sachs published a note Wednesday saying Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan together hold enough deployable reserves, roughly $1 trillion, to intervene in the yen at scale should USD/JPY resume its climb. BeInCrypto reported the call early Wednesday, citing the bank's FX research desk. The note argues the intervention capacity is not the binding constraint.
The binding constraint, per Goldman, is the interest-rate differential between the Fed and the BOJ. Tokyo has already sold dollars to defend the yen twice in the past 24 months, drawing down reserves but leaving the war chest largely intact. The MOF's most recent disclosed intervention totalled roughly ¥9.
8 trillion, or about $62 billion at the time, spread across two operating days. Goldman's framing is that another round of that size is well within the current buffer.
Why it matters
The yen is not a crypto asset, but it moves crypto. Twice in the past two years, an unwind in the yen carry trade has cascaded into bitcoin. On August 5, 2024, a BOJ hike and a sharp yen rally triggered a global de-risking that dragged BTC from around $63k to $49k in a single session.
In February 2025, a smaller unwind pulled BTC off its highs. The mechanic is simple. Global funds borrow yen at near-zero rates to buy higher-yielding assets, including U.
S. tech and, at the margin, crypto. When the yen strengthens fast, that trade goes into reverse, and the highest-beta assets bleed first.
Goldman's message is that Tokyo can lean against a weaker yen for a while yet. That reduces the odds of a disorderly BOJ hike, which is the scenario crypto desks actually fear.