What happened
Americans for Fair Markets opened its doors in Washington on Thursday, backed by Kalshi and announcing Taylor Budowich as senior advisor, CryptoBriefing reported. Budowich served as deputy chief of staff for communications in the Trump White House and ran the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. His addition gives the group a direct line into Republican policy circles at a moment when prediction markets are facing coordinated pushback from state regulators.
Kalshi confirmed its role as a founding backer. The launch comes after months of cease-and-desist letters from state gaming commissions in Nevada, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Ohio, each arguing that Kalshi's election and sports event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling. Kalshi's counter has been consistent: it operates under CFTC oversight as a designated contract market, and state gambling law does not apply.
Why it matters
This is the prediction-market industry organising politically for the first time at scale. Until now Kalshi has fought its battles in court, winning a key ruling against the CFTC last year that cleared election contracts, then defending against state actions one by one. An advocacy group with a former senior Trump aide attached changes the venue.
It moves the fight from courtrooms into legislative offices and federal agency comment dockets. The stakes extend well past Kalshi. Polymarket, which settled its own CFTC case in 2022 and is rebuilding US access, benefits from any rule clarifying that event contracts are derivatives.
So do crypto-native venues exploring tokenised prediction markets. The opposing camp - the American Gaming Association, state lottery commissions, and major sportsbooks - has spent a decade and hundreds of millions building state-by-state regulated sports betting. They view federal preemption of event contracts as an existential threat to that model.